Sunday, April 20, 2014

Numbers Don't Lie


Always approach the inside & top part of the baseball.  This will keep your bat on the correct swing plane and help you hit the baseball where it is supposed to be hit… With this approach, you’ll hit a lot more line drives and ground balls.” (BaseballCamps.com)

I took the above quote from an organization that runs camps for kids that run anywhere from $79 to $615.  The main hitting concept preached is to hit the top of the ball and make sure the defense has to make a play.  If you think about it, a ground ball requires a fielder to not only get to the ball, field it cleanly, and make an accurate throw in order to retire the batter, but it also shows that the batter can hit the top-inner part of the ball.  Hard ground balls are what boost your average, right?  In order for this ideal swing to come to fruition the hitter must have a nice downward path to the ball.  This will result in a more successful hitter.

My son’s (high school) coach wants everyone to hit down on the ball.  He explains that this is to cause backspin to get the ball to travel further.” (community.hsbaseballweb.com)

So, in order to drive the ball with power you must have backspin on the ball.  What is the definition of power in the baseball world?  Hitting the ball far, right?  So, this would mean that good contact with backspin naturally creates more power for a hitter.  According to this theory, the best way to get backspin on a baseball is to have a nice downward path to the ball.  This will result in a more successful hitter.

Wait… how could the same swing path be the key to two completely different schools of thought on what makes a successful hitter?  Doesn’t it seem strange that two different hitting coaches can try to teach the same swing and expect two totally opposite results?  Don't you begin to question if they know what that swing is even supposed to do?  If you brought your son to each of these instructors, he’d be taught the same swing, yet his result could garner contrary responses from each coach depending on who he was working with that specific day.  The kid would be doing the exact same thing and have no idea what is supposed to result from it!  His head would explode! (I’m not sure how accurate that last part is).  So which of the two is preaching the correct swing?

Trick question.  Answer is neither.

Not only does this swing pattern stir up vastly different expected results, but it’s also the wrong bat path.  Succeeding as a hitter is a rarity.  Just by taking a quick look at the past century of baseball, it’ll show that the best hitters EVER failed right around 68% of the time… best EVER!  The task of getting a hit with nine guys trying to stop you is ridiculously hard.  Now imagine the likelihood of trying to beat those same nine guys while putting the barrel of a round bat on a, high velocity, round ball, whilst both travel at varying degrees of DOWNWARD motion.  Why would a coach ever put that burden upon a player!?



Taking the time to simply type in “slowmo swings” on Youtube will result in the best professional hitters taking swings that all have varying degrees of upward motion.  Why?  This is to combat the downward angle the pitcher is creating and to keep their barrel on plane with the trajectory of the pitched ball for as long as possible. Even those who have never stepped in the box can understand this simply by taking a look at that small hill in the middle of the infield that the pitcher throws DOWN FROM.  This slightly upward angle the hitter sets while swinging provides them the greatest chance of not only squaring up the pitch, but getting the ball in the air.  I know, I know, low line drives and ground balls are the best right?  Not according to the numbers. 

When considering slugging percentage (SLG) during the 2013 MLB season, line drives resulted in an .883 percentage, fly balls were .621 SLG and ground balls were .250 SLG.  This indicates the obvious, those hitting line drives are consistently and vastly more effective than those who don’t, but if you are hoping for extra base hits on a consistent basis it becomes apparent that you should error on the side of getting more lift on the ball as opposed to on the ground.  On-base Plus Slugging (OPS), which is the sum of On-Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG) shows that line drives during the 2013 season, resulted in a ridiculous 1.568 OPS.  Fly ball OPS was .834 and ground balls were a just a little over half that of a fly ball at .483.  Those looking to disprove the fact that putting the ball in the air results in better numbers will argue that modern Sabermetrics have verified that slugging percentage, as well as batting average and on base percentage are dated stats that don’t accurately show just how effective a player can truly be.  This is absolutely true; so let’s take a look at more telling stats. 

Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter’s raw power.  Basically, it measures how good a player is at hitting extra base hits.  According to fangraphs, the average ISO for a big league hitter is right around .145.  With this in mind, let’s take a look at how the three varying results of a batted ball measure up.  Liners were above the average at .193, grounders were an expected lowly .018 and fly balls were a whopping .403.  ISO seems too obviously geared towards my ultimate point, so the last data I'll show focuses solely on how effective a batter truly is as an all-around hitter.  

Arguably the most telling of hitting stats is weighted on-base average (wOBA).  As explained on fangraphs.com, “wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their ACTUAL run value.  While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively” (fangraphs.com).  wOBA has quickly become one of the most important numbers that front offices look at when judging the success of a hitter.  The estimated average wOBA for a big league hitter is .320.  Line drives in 2013, naturally, scored incredibly high, more than doubling the league average, at .681.  Fly balls ranked at .346, still above the average hitter, and grounders sat at .213, more than 100 points lower than the average Major League hitter.
 
By taking a look at the numbers it becomes apparent that creating a bat angle that puts the hitter in the best position to hit a line drive is obviously the ideal swing.  However, if you are going to miss your pitch by a fraction of an inch, it’s far more productive to get just under the ball and put the ball in the air.  Setting a slight upward swing angle can ensure that a hitter will be on plane with the pitch and can create natural lift.  If a coach still cannot come to grips with reality and the cut and dry numbers of baseball productivity, let’s have him take a step out the box and onto the mound. 

The Oakland A’s have been masters of efficiency and making the most of their farm system.  How do they consistently groom successful young pitchers year after year?  According to multiple former A’s pitchers that I have been fortunate enough to call teammates, they turn the plate.  No, they don’t physically dig home plates up and angle them to different degrees, but that’s how they picture it.  Envision the tip of the plate being turned towards the left or right batter’s box 45 degrees.  Then imagine trying to throw a pitch that crosses either of those plates instead of the one right down the middle.  The best way to make this happen is by creating ball movement and depth.  Instead of a straight four-seam fastball, sinkers and cutters are the name of the game.  Pronating change-ups, sliders, etc. all drop low and in or low and away from each hitter, effectively crossing these angled plates.  Why are such successful pitching coaches teaching this philosophy?  Because the downward depth of the pitch forces the batter to miss off the barrel by a hair and induces far more ground balls.  These successful pitchers are begging for you to ground out!  Don't you see!?  They WANT that result!  Why do they want that result!? Because, more often than not, YOU’RE OUT!  The numbers showed us this! Why am I still yelling!?

Any player that shows these numbers to their coach and the coach still demands to come down on the ball with the chop swing; you let me know and I’ll officially hire Rasheed Wallace to tell said coach that “NUMBERS don’t lie!!”.

                                  

I could go on about why setting proper hitting angles is essential to being successful but Rasheed and I have said enough.  Instead, I'll leave you with this text I received from former Atlanta Brave Cory Aldridge who, just this past winter, scorched the Caribbean Classic with ridiculous numbers across the board and, after a mere twelve games in the Mexican League, sent me this text showing his current, absurd, stats (1st is his AVG, 2nd is his HR's, 3rd is RBI's).  He meant to say, "hitting well".  He then follows up my bad joke with his game plan at the plate...



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